Feb 19, 2026
Brazil Corn Estimate Lowered 1.0 mt to 136.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The forecast is calling for lighter showers in central Brazil during the first half of this week with heavier amounts returning by the end of the week. The drier weather in northern Brazil over the next few days will favor fieldwork, but wetter weather by the end of the week may slow fieldwork again.
Safrinha corn in Brazil was 31% planted as of late last week compared to 36% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 9% for the week. The ideal planting window for safrinha corn in south-central Brazil closes this coming weekend with a significant portion of the crop left to plant.
Several months ago, when soybean planting was being delayed due to irregular rainfall, many farmers in central Brazil indicated that they would plant an alternative crop instead of expensive safrinha corn. Conab seemed to have confirmed that trend when they reduced the 2025/26 safrinha corn acreage by 200,000 hectares (494,000 acres) in their February Crop Report. The safrinha corn acreage could decline again in the March report.
Therefore, the 2025/26 Brazil corn estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons to 136.0 million with a neutral bias. Having said that, the eventual safrinha corn production will be determined by when the summer rainy season ends in central Brazil and as of now, it is uncertain when that might happen.
Mato Grosso - Safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 46% planted as of late last week compared to 45% last year and 53% average. This represents an advance of 17.7% for the week. The most advanced planting is in the mid-north region where 62% of the corn has been planted. The slowest planting is in the southeastern region where 22% has been planted. Below is the safrinha corn planting progress in Mato Grosso as of February 13, 2026 from Imea.
Parana - Safrinha corn in Parana was 22% planted as of earlier last week and rated 61% germinating and 39% in vegetative development. The first corn crop in Parana was 18% harvested with 42% filling grain and 57% maturing and rated 6% average and 94% good.